Transparent enough to audit.

Player Runs

Historical innings are weighted by recency, expected batting role and competition. A cohort prior stabilizes smaller player samples. The output is a full runs distribution rather than a single average.

P(Runs ≥ x) is derived from that distribution for each displayed threshold.

Expected batting position

The expected position is inferred from the player's most recent appearances with higher weight on recent matches. Role Stability measures how consistently the player bats within ±1 position of that expected role.

Player Fours

The model estimates a player-specific probability of a four per legal ball, shrunk toward players with a comparable batting role. It then integrates that event rate over the player's estimated balls-faced distribution.

Player Sixes

The sixes model uses the same opportunity framework, but learns a separate six-rate. A beta-binomial count model allows extra variation beyond a simple fixed-rate binomial model.